What’s happening
- Sabah is headed for its 17th state election (PRN17). The current Sabah State Legislative Assembly must be dissolved and new polls held by 7 December 2025.
- Recently, Chief Minister Hajiji Noor confirmed an electoral pact with Pakatan Harapan (PH), meaning GRS and PH will coordinate in the upcoming races.
- The date is not fixed yet, but Chief Minister Hajiji Noor has announced the dissolution of the Sabah State Assembly on 6 October, paving way for an election within 60 days.
Why it matters
- Autonomy, identity, and “Sabah for Sabahans.” Many analysts see this election as a referendum on Sabah’s autonomy within the Malaysian federation, particularly how strongly local parties can push for rights enshrined in the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).
- Test of federal–state relations. The election offers a window into how federal-level parties and coalitions — especially the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim — will navigate the delicate balance of supporting state actors without undermining them.
- Political fluidity and volatility. Sabah’s politics are known for defections, shifting coalitions, and “frog-hopping” of assembly members. Any government formed will need to manage internal cohesion.
- Service delivery is under scrutiny. Voters in rural and semi-urban Sabah often cite basic issues — unreliable water and power supply, poor roads, infrastructure backlogs — as chronic grievances.
The big picture: Context & backdrop
Historical volatility
Sabah’s electoral history is rife with party switching, abrupt coalitional shifts, and short-lived governments.
In the last election (2020), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) secured 38 of 73 seats — a slim majority — while the Warisan Plus coalition won 32, and independents took the remainder.
Because of the tight margin, internal disagreements and shifts in allegiance have always been a risk to governance stability.
Coalitions and key players
- GRS (Gabungan Rakyat Sabah). The incumbent coalition, constituted mainly of Sabah-based parties like Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (PGRS), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), SAPP, and others.
- PH (Pakatan Harapan). Though more influential in Peninsular Malaysia, PH (through PKR, DAP, Amanah) has been aligned with GRS at the state level in recent years; the new pact formalizes that cooperation.
- WARISAN. The party founded by Mohd. Shafie Apdal remains a strong local opposition voice. Its narrative often centers on Sabah’s rights and state-centric governance.
- UMNO / BN, PN and others. Traditional national parties want footholds in Sabah. BN (via UMNO Sabah) still holds influence; Perikatan Nasional (PN) may seek contesting opportunities.
- Smaller / local parties. Many small Sabah-based parties may play kingmaker roles, particularly in close contests.
Key issues shaping voter sentiment
- Infrastructure and utilities. Problems like erratic electricity, piped water shortages, and poor road maintenance are perennial.
- Development and inequality. Sabah is among Malaysia’s less developed states, and voters want to see progress in education, healthcare, rural connectivity, and economic opportunities.
- Autonomy, MA63, resource rights. Sabahans often demand stronger enforcement of the Malaysia Agreement, local rights over natural resources and fiscal leeway.
- Political integrity & governance. Scandals, patronage, and shifting allegiances erode trust. Voters may reward parties seen as more consistent or principled.
- Electoral pacts versus competition. The new GRS–PH pact may reduce vote splitting but creates tension between cooperation and identity politics.
- Undecided voters. Recent polls show a large share of the electorate remains undecided — indicating that campaigns, ground work, and last-minute swings could matter.
What to watch
| Indicator | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Date announcement & timing | A sudden dissolution signals strategic timing (favoring incumbents). |
| Seat allocations / candidate slates | Who contests where, and which seats are conceded, will show coalition priorities. |
| Campaign messaging | The balance between local issues (water, roads) vs identity/autonomy narratives will be telling. |
| Ground mobilization & turnout | Sabah’s rural geography means turnout logistics and local ground forces matter. |
| Defections or post-election shifts | Given Sabah’s political fluidity, ballot results may not be the final word. |
Bottom line
The upcoming Sabah state election is more than a routine poll. It’s a crucible for Sabah’s identity, autonomy, and relationship with federal Malaysia. The coalitions that emerge, their stability, and how they execute governance afterward may reshape Sabah’s political trajectory.
Check out the stakes, players and the battle for the 73 seats.